A collector I know has proved very successful in identifying trends – perhaps even creating them himself – by taking calculated risks as a pioneering force. Describing himself as a ‘homesteader’, he has acted like one of the great pioneers of the West in the 19th century, heading out and staking his claim before seeing if it yields anything of value.

The thing about people like this is they accept that a lot of the time their efforts will yield very little, but it’s all worth it because here and there they hit paydirt.

So, look about you and ask yourself a few questions. What do you see that will stand the test of the time? Does it have mass appeal? In time, will items associated with this field decline sufficiently to create that vital rarity factor… but not become so rare that not enough of it is left to sustain a collecting base? Does it have the potential to create a strong sense of nostalgia? Perhaps have retro or kitsch value? Is it the sort of thing that could be a future design icon or simply a fascinating piece of history?

One of the best ways of doing that is to see what is coming into fashion now.

A superb example is memorabilia and particularly photographs linked to the Apollo missions of the 1960s. At the most important art and antiques fair in the world a few years ago, one dealer devoted his entire stand to photos from the Apollo missions. Not only was it a stunning display, but it was also able to capitalize on the fact that it was building up to the half century since man first landed on the Moon in 1969. Momentum always accelerates as you get closer to a significant anniversary.

First generation iPhones only date to 2007 – only 15 years ago. Yet in February, one of these, still factory sealed in its box, took $63,000. And that’s the key with items like this: condition is everything. In mint condition is good; still in its original box is better; factory sealed is best!

Death, Divorce, Debt and Disaster. These are the four Ds, as they are known, that have traditionally defined why people decide to sell their belongings at auction. Now, I am adding another two: Downsizing and Decluttering.

From family heirlooms to duplicates within collections that can be recycled to fund the next purchase, these sources of auction consignments bring hard-to-find rarities to the surface all the time. Auctions provide probably the best hunting ground thanks to house clearances and deceased estates, where interesting antiques and collectables that have been hidden away for decades get their first public showing. Pitched right, they can create a lot of bidding competition. But these circumstances also create the perfect opportunity to pick up a bargain. That’s why general auctions are such an exciting experience – you never know what will turn up.

Before the days of throwaway consumer culture, this is how many people furnished their homes.

One of the great obsessions in our industry is how you attract the next generation of buyers and sellers. Forty or fifty years ago, newly married couples tended to go to auction to buy furniture and decorations for their first home. They were the original recyclers, unwittingly supporting the green end of the economy.

Then the era of mass consumerism, with its disposable, flatpack furnishings, took over, tastes changed, and the local general weekly auction started to look like a thing of the past.

Well, close to half a century on we’re still here and as relevant today as we have always been. Yes, we have had to adapt, offering more specialist sales, better catalogues, clear costings and, in the advanced technological age, live bidding via the internet.

What hasn’t changed are the twin thrills of finding something special hidden among the day-to-day items and the charged atmosphere of competitive bidding and ultimate victory as the hammer comes down. I’d say they are as attractive characteristics of the auction process for the young as they are for the more mature among us. What’s more, the concept of recycling and upcycling is stronger than ever, so the tradition continues!

One of the most interesting aspects of working in the art, antiques and collectables world today is just how few people realise that they are part of it. Antiques may be things of the past, but it’s an ever-changing world, which means there is a constant supply of ‘new’ antiques, objects that have just become more than 100 years old.

In the end, it is an arbitrary measure; what really matters is the quality of the piece in question. Values can change depending on a range of factors, such as rarity and condition – and, indeed, age – but perhaps the two factors that most alter the general cycle of buying and selling are changing tastes and habits.

Think of tobacciana and smoking accouterments. Cigarette cases of the 1930s remain highly collectable, but will that always be the case no smoking itself is in such decline?

A similar view can be taken of dining room furniture. Personally, I think a return to having a special room for dinner parties and the like is long overdue, but while larger homes may still accommodate this if they choose, the average new-build house simply does not have the space.

What we need to seek out then, are the antiques of the future.

There is one collector I know of who has proved very successful in identifying trends – perhaps even creating them himself – by taking calculated risks as a pioneering force. Describing himself as a ‘homesteader’, he has acted like one of the great pioneers of the West in the 19th century, heading out and staking his claim before seeing if it yields anything of value.

The thing about people like this is they accept that a lot of the time their efforts will yield very little, but it’s all worth it because here and there they hit paydirt.

So, as we embark on 2023, look about you and ask yourself a few questions. What do you see that will stand the test of the time? Does it have mass appeal? In time, will items associated with this field decline sufficiently to create that vital rarity factor… but not become so rare that not enough of it is left to sustain a collecting base? Does it have the potential to create a strong sense of nostalgia? Perhaps have retro or kitsch value? Is it the sort of thing that could be a future design icon or simply a fascinating piece of history?

What should you look out for in 2023 when it comes to auctions and collecting? What will be hot, and where will the money be? If I could say for sure, then it’s more likely I would be cruising the Caribbean by now instead of rolling my sleeves up for another year of hard graft (although I love it really!). However, decades of experience have taught me to spot the signs, and here are a few to whet the appetite.

• Modern British art. The wonderful exhibition running until April at the Pallant House Gallery in Chichester – one of the most influential public institutions of its type in the UK – illustrates this perfectly. Inspired by the South Down and titled Sussex Landscape: Chalk, Wood and Water, nowhere does it capture the spirit of that landscape better than in the exhibition’s cover painting, Chalk Path (1935) by Eric Ravilious. Mod Brit works are here to stay, with many prices climbing.
• Railways. A century ago in 1923, all the small, independent railway companies were brought together under the umbrella of the big four companies: LNER (London Northeastern Railway), GWR (Great Western Railway), SR (Southern Railway) and LMS (London, Midland & Scottish Railway). Railwayana already has an extensive following; expect auctioneers to mark the centenary with specialist sales, along with dedicated exhibitions at public institutions.
• Pre-owned luxury brands. Handbags, scarves, clothing, accessories, jewellery, sunglasses – if you want to attract a mass following at auction, this is a sure way to go. Millennials, Gen Z, ladies who lunch… all of them are piling into this sector, so much so that the original brands themselves are now launching sidelines in secondhand versions of their own products.
• Watches. With prices of new watches going up, vintage has become even more attractive. From Rolex and Patek Philippe to Cartier and Omega, there seems to be no end to their popularity and ability to hold value. Ladies and gents are both keen collectors, as are fans of engineering, luxury and lifestyle statement collectibles.